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Sunday 31 July 2011

Countdown to the big kick off starts here

With less than 7 days to the opening round of English League football matches its time to focus on the opening fixtures to see if any matches are statistically a good thing to bet on.

For me, preseason friendlies don't offer much in the way of form, as managers swap players around, use different systems and generally use the games to increase the fitness of the staff. Therefore there is no real form to go on for the first couple of weeks of the season so instead I look to the previous performance of teams and gauge whether a certain pattern will continue.

In the English Championship we have Reading, the losing finalists in the play offs. Reading start off against Millwall at home and will be looking for a fast start to the season following their loss to Swansea at Wembley. The 2 sides have played 5 times at Reading in recent history with Reading winning every time. In the reverse fixture Reading have only lost once, so from 10 games 1 defeat for Reading.

Last season Reading were surprisingly turned over by Scunthorpe at home on the opening day, whereas Millwall got a flyer with a 0-3 win at Bristol City.

Looking at other losing play off finalists we see the following

YearHome TeamAway TeamScore
2010CardiffSheffield United(PL)1-1
2009MiddlesboroughSheffield United(PL)0-0
2008BlackpoolBristol City(PL)0-1
2007BurnleyWBA(PL)2-1
2006Leeds(PL)Norwich2-1
2005WatfordPreston(PL)1-2
2004LeicesterWest Ham United(PL)0-0
2003Sheffield United (PL)Gillingham0-0
2002Norwich City (PL)Grimsby0-0


The table shows us that only West Brom have lost on the opening day after losing the play off final in the championship. This is a reasonable form guide and suggests that these sides are able to keep the core of the team together from that defeat. We see a lot of draws in this sequence however given Readings fine form against Millwall and no worrying sequence for losing play off finalists I will be including Reading in my list for next Saturday.

Friday 29 July 2011

Hunting that special value bet - off topic

This morning I was watching the prices for the England Vs India Cricket match starting at Trent Bridge. To my amazement just after the toss I saw that they were offering at 500/1 on the draw! I have already checked the weather forecast and the draw is an unlikely result however this bet was too good to miss! So I have placed 2 bets for £2 at 500/1 on the draw!

This was available on Bluesq - within a couple of minutes the price had changed to 15/8 and then 2/1!

here is a image of my bet

Selections
Selection 1 Draw @ 500/1 To Win - Not Settled
Market Match Winner
Event England v India
2nd Test - England v India
11:00 29/07/2011
Bet Type Single
Unit Stake £2.00
Number of Units x1
Stake £2.00
Time and Date Placed 10:36 29/07/2011

Update: Bluesq have now cancelled my bet! Apparently this is considered to be a "palpable" error in price and the bet will not stand. I have asked some more questions around this out of interest and havent got very far, so I will be emailing them for more information.

I will keep you posted.......

The New Domestic English Football Season 2011/2012 Has Arrived

It seems a long time since the FA Cup final back in May, and even longer was the fateful day Arsenal turned up at Wembley to collect their Carling Cup only to be turned over by Birmingham City, this seemed to be the trigger for the end of the Arsenal fight on all fronts. That game was played in front of 88,851 screaming fans and countless TV viewers and radio listeners. The date was the 27 February 2011 and unbeknown to all that result was going to have an effect on the 2011-2012 Carling Cup competition.

A number of years ago the authorities brought in a rule in England stating that any side qualifying for European competition would get a bye to the third round of the Carling Cup. This was to save a game for those tired footballers that had to fly around Europe in Business Class (stay focused Martin don't get side tracked). As Birmingham won the Cup they get a bye to the third round of the competition, and because they were relegated it means that there is now an odd number of sides in the first round of the cup! This is an interesting scenario as it hasnt come up before in this competition - we had a similar issue when Man United decided to play in the Club World Championship rather than fulfill their domestic obligations and play in the FA Cup.

The solution to this problem was that the 2 lowest ranked sides would have a play off to see who will go into the first round of the Carling Cup proper. The 2 lowest ranked sides from last season playing in this seasons competition are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon, the 2 sides promoted from the Conference. It seems a shame that one of these 2 will miss out on playing a more lucrative first round tie however it seems the logical solution.

So tonight, 29 July 2011 the Carling Cup begins when Crawley Town entertain AFC Wimbledon. The winners will go on to play away at Crystal Palace. This seems rather interesting as Wimbledon used to be tenants at the home of Crystal Palace before they upset many people and decamped to Milton Keynes. Are the footballing gods looking down on us and telling us that Wimbledon will get their day at Selhurst Park or will the match go the way of big money spenders Crawley?

Last season these sides both won the home fixtures against each other, so i believe this game will be closer than the bookies seem to want to make out.
Crawley are available at 8/11 , its 5/2 the draw and Wimbledon a huge 10/3.

If nothing else this game may give a us a view to how the teams have got on in the summer recruiting players and how well they will gel in the early weeks of the season.

So here we go! the domestic football season gets underway tonight, probably for the first time its before the Charity Shield (or community shield) that is the season curtain raiser. For me, I may watch the game and look at some in play markets.

To see my bet status click here

Tuesday 26 July 2011

Final Season Long Selections

I have now posted my selections for the coming season. The theory behind my selections are documented through the blog, however if you would like clarification on any of the selections let me know.

All of my prices come from Bluesq and Bet365. If you would like to set up an account and get some free bets for the season
click Here for Bluesq
click Here for Bet365

To see my selections click here

Saturday 23 July 2011

Different Betting Options For 2011-2012

Today I have decided to look at a "special" bet being offered by Bet365, this is off the back of our regular contributor tyates86 who provided us with the "bet without Man U and Chelsea"! Here the suggested bet is Man City at 5/4 which does look incredible value.

So what else could we look at to find some value?

We have the "who will score the most goals" market - this is offered by Bet365 click on the link to create an account.

Looking at the previous seasons I'm simply looking at which team scores the most goals, since 2001/02 (with the exception of 2001/02) the teams finishing first or second have always been the highest goals scorers. In 2001/02 the highest scorers were Man U who finished 3rd, albeit only 3 points behind second.

Since then Man U have finished up as top scorers on 4 occasions, Chelsea once (the season the won the league and scored 103 goals - the highest number of goals). So maybe rather than betting on a team to win the league you should consider backing that team to score the most goals as there is a link! Also if your team finished second they could still be leading scorers!

The prices available for the top scorers are

Man City 4/1
Liverpool 13/2
Man U 7/1
Chelsea 9/1
Arsenal 10/1

As you see these prices are much better than betting to win the league! Indeed I find these odds somewhat surprising when you look at the betting for the leading goalscorer. Man U have 2 of the top 3 favorites and Chelsea have the other, these 2 are still the favorites for the league also. So Man U and Chelsea in this market look like fantastic value!

Sunday 17 July 2011

Opening Day fixtures in English League 2

Having identified a possible strategy for the opening day of the football season I have looked at the relegated sides from League 1 last season and assessed their previous form against the teams they are playing on the opening day. To see my comments on how relegated teams get on click here

First up are Swindon who will play Crewe. These sides have met 3 times in the past 10 years, in 2009, 2007 and 2002. Interestingly enough in 2009 and 2007 we saw draws and in 2002 we saw an away win for Crewe.

Of course the teams have changes completely since that time however we do see the draw trend that I am after.

Shrewsbury have not played Plymouth in the time frame I am looking at so I cannot find a pattern for these teams. The same can be said for Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers.

However the final game involving a relegated team is Dagenham and Redbridge. Dagenham will play away at Macclesfield. These sides have met 3 times in recent history and as with Swindon and Crewe we see 2 draws and 1 away win.

Given the number of draws seen involving relegated teams and given the recent history of these sides I am slowly becoming convinced that a Yankees involving these 4 games all drawing could be the way to go.

Saturday 16 July 2011

The start of life in English League 2

When teams get relegated to the 4th tier of English football they find themselves one step away from the dreaded Conference League! The Conference League is "dreaded" because it is now overflowing with professional League teams all intent on getting out of it and back into League 2. So when a team is relegated from League 1 into League 2 I would have thought every effort would be made to get off to a fast start to retain the League status of the club. Teams playing in League 1 the previous season should in theory be stronger than many of the League 2 conterparts however the results of the opening fixtures do nothing to support this theory!

Looking at the past 7 seasons we see that the win % of teams relegated the previous season is not very good! Indeed taking the opening 2 fixtures for all of the teams relegated we see that in 27 of the fixtures we saw a draw. I find this an incredible stat as we saw 14 wins and 15 loses. So almost 50% of the opening 2 games played by relegated teams in League 2 end in a draw!

If we look at the opening day fixtures alone we see 53% of the games ended in a draw - this represents 15 games, we saw 8 wins and 5 loses inthe same selection of games.

In the 2007/08 season all 4 teams drew on the opening day. Since then we have seen a minimum of 2 games drawn on opening day with 3 games being drawn last season. Please note that some of the relegated teams played each other which slightly skews the stats.

Looking at the fixtures for the relegated teams.
Wimbledon V Bristol Rovers
Swindon V Crewe
Shrewsbury V Plymouth
Macclesfield V Dagenham & Redbridge

Its not out of the question that these 4 games could end in draws. I am tempted to do some research on these games to look for other factors and then possibly place some combination bets on draws occuring here in the attempt to pick up some early winnings at the start of the new football season.

I would need 2 results to come in to cover my bet and 3 or more would give me a healthy profit on the opening day.

I will post my research on these 4 specific games once I have completed it!

Tuesday 12 July 2011

How do teams promoted from League 2 get on in League 1

I'm almost at the end of my review of promoted and relegated teams performances and today is the turn of the promoted sides from League 2. To clarify, 4 teams get promoted rather than the 3 up to the championship and the premiership, this means we have more games to look for trends.

It seems that promoted teams do not fair very well when they start out on their League 1 adventure. Of the past 7 seasons we have seen 8 wins, 13 loses and 7 draws in the opening day fixtures. This is not a good stat for those new teams however after the opening day fixture these teams find out quickly how to play at this level.

In the last 4 seasons we have only seen 2 sides win on opening day, 2 seasons ago Gillingham won at home and Brentford won away. Last season we saw 3 loses and 1 draw. 2 of the loses were away, the draw was at home.

Interestingly however, Dagenham last season became the first playoff winning side to lose on opening day since Southend in 05-06. Indeed Dagenham and Southend are the only defeated sides winning the League 2 playoff in the 7 years reviewed, 3 sides have won and there have been 2 draws.

The play off winners this year were Stevenage and they will be at home to Exeter City. Exeter did well last season finishing in the top half and picked up some good wins along the way. Exeter are not particularly good starters away from home so this is a possibility for my opening selections.

Bury travel to Huddersfield. Huddersfield lost out in the play offs and are considered by the bookies to be one of the favorites for promotion. SO I cannot see Bury getting a win on opening day. Wycombe entertain relegated Scunthorpe see my blog to see how relegated teams get on! Given the trends I reckon this is likely to end in a draw. Finally Chesterfield will play Tranmere, Tranmere avoided relegation by 8 points which was fair enough and probably end in the bottom half next season as well. They did pick up 9 wins at home so have some ability there. Its a tough game to call so I won't give advice however the stats suggest Chesterfield won't win!

Sunday 10 July 2011

How do promoted teams get on in the Championship

Having reviewed a lot of stats, it seems there are no consistent patterns that provide definate results. However there are some interesting trends that can hopefully be used to our advantage come match day.

I have looked at teams promoted to the Championship to see how they get on in their opening 2 fixtures. The past 7 seasons have been used which means 42 games are being analysed.

In total these teams have given us 14 wins, 12 defeats and 16 draws. This is quite interesting as we haven't seen draws coming out on top in any other specific analysis so far. If we look at the opening day fixtures for these sides we see 6 wins, 8 defeats and 7 draws. This is not particularly good form for the teams themselves however should act as a warning for ourselves. Last season Norwich and Leeds opened with home defeats whereas Millwall started with an away win.

The previous season we saw the reverse with Leicester winning at home and Peterborough and Scunthorpe started with away defeats.

If we ignore these 2 sets of results and the set from 05-06 we would see that draws were a regular sight on opening day, indeed 7 draws were see in the 12 games reviewed.

Teams playing at home on opening day have won twice, lost twice and drawn on 5 occasions.

Home form is important to us here as we can see that all 3 promoted sides this year are due to play at home.
Brighton will play Doncaster, Southampton will play Leeds and Peterborough will play Crystal Palace.

Brighton have played Doncaster twice in the last 10 seasons, so there isn't much form to go on, we have seen 1 home win and 1 away win.

Southampton have played Leeds on 5 occasions. Interestingly Southampton have won on 4 occasions, losing only once. However they have never played each other this early into a season.

Finally Peterborough have played Crystal Palace only once in 10 seasons and on that occasion the game ended in a draw, this game was in August in 2009.

There isn't much recent form naturally, as these are promoted teams there is definately no clear trend however I do find it interesting that there hasn't been a draw on opening day involving promoted teams for 2 seasons. We have also never see all 3 sides lose on opening day and we have not seen all 3 sides starting at home on the same day!

to see how teams relegated from the championship get on click here

Tuesday 5 July 2011

How do relegated Championship teams start in League 1

In recent years the profile of a relegated team from the Championship has changed. It seemed to be that the relegated teams were either yoyo teams that were too good for League 1 but not good enough for the championship or teams fighting above their weight for a season or 2. However in recent times the championship teams being relegated have been ex Premiership teams that have fallen from grace, usually due to bad financial management at the club. Leicester, Leeds, Man City, Forest, Southampton, Charlton and Norwich all match this profile.

The data is taken from the past 7 seasons of League 1.

This season we saw Sheffield United, Preston and Scunthorpe relegated. Scunthorpe could be seen as the yoyo side whereas Sheffield United are ex Premiership and were in the playoffs for promotion recently and Preston generally were a top half side for many years.

The teams relegated in 09/10 (Plymouth, Peterborough and Sheffield Weds) all started with wins the following season. This was the first time all 3 relegated teams have started with a win. Interestingly 2 of them lost the second game and the other had a draw. Looking at the other teams relegated over the years there doesn't seem to be a particular trend or pattern. Leeds and Brighton both won their opening 2 games, the only 2 to achieve this is in the years I was reviewing.

We have see 14 wins, 14 defeats, 14 draws in the opening 2 fixtures for the past 7 years! So given this stat i don't think finding easy bets in League 1 on relegated teams is going to be possible!

However teams playing at home on opening day have only lost twice, the latest being Norwich who were beaten 7-1 at home by Colchester, but ended up winning the League that season!

Preston are the only team at home and indeed they are home to Colchester! Preston are clear favourites to win but if you fancy a repeat of the Norwich result Colchester are a nice price!

I will be doing a review of promoted teams to the championship next, hopefully that will give some better trends to follow.