We have reached that point in the season when its make or break time for many. A defeat could mathematically rule teams out of the promotion or play off fight, a win could prounce themselves as the late challengers. At the foot of the tables it the same, a defeat could end hopes of survival, a win couls set up a nerve wrecking end to the season.
The leagues are almost wrapped up now, Man United seem set for another Premier League crown, QPR look likely winners of the Championship. The first team to be promoted this season are Brighton, again they look solid to take the League 1 crown and Chesterfield sit handily in League 2. I can confirm that those 4 teams were available as an accumulator of 18/1 on New Years day so I'm pretty hopeful of collecting on that bet!
I am currently in the process of building a stats database, hopefully it will be perfected for the start of next season, it allows me to analyse all league matches since 2002/03 for all 4 leagues. It provides a mass of stats at the touch of a button so I can see current form, head to head form, goals scored for that all important goal crazy bet!
Quickly looking at the Stats I see that Burton are in real danger now of going down from League 2. They have lost their last 4 games and drew the other of 5 away 0-0 at Stockport! This shows no form at all. At home things aren't much better, 1 win and 2 draws in 5 including that 1-5 defeat to Barnet a couple of weeks ago. Barnet themselves have managed 2 away wins in 5 and drawn 1 and at home they have won 2 and drawn 2, they also played teams such as Crewe, Chesterfield and Lincoln without defeat. Burton are available at 9/4 to go down, in a 2 horse race where Burton only have 1 game in hand is a very interesting proposition. Barnet were galvanised by Martin Allen for a couple of weeks but he has since moved on to Notts County. I might bet half a stake on Burton to go down at that price.
In League 1 its almost certain that Plymouth will be leaving, hopefully as a relegated club and not one that is in liquidation. I understand that Peter Risdale is on Talksport this morning so that will make an interesting listen. It seems the bookies feel that Swindon and Bristol Rovers will also fall down a league leaving 1 place left to fight for with Notts County, Dagenham & Redbridge and Walsall the likely 3 teams attempting to avoid that position. Walsall are favourites to drop of those 3, althogh Notts County occupy the slot at present but have recently brought in the fabled Martin Allen to sort them out! It could be too late and at 6/5 maybe a double with Burton is a possible bet!
So to the weekend selections, I had some restbite last week with a second in the Grand National but I have nothing to back me up thyis week so hopefully the new stats application will start to payback the hours I have sunk into it!
First into the hotseat this week are Charlton and Huddersfield. Charlton were recharged under Chris Powell earlier in the season but things have gon a bit flat, they have fallen out of contention for a playoff birth and find themselves stranded in mid table. Their home form is not great although they did win last timeo ut against Orient 3-1 which eneded a run of 5 games at home without a win. Huddersfield on the other hand are unbeaten away in tehir last 10 games a run that stretches back to defeat at Southampton in December. Huddersfield lie in 3rd place on goal difference to second placed Southampton. I always feel at this time of the year its better to bet on the teams with something to play for rather than the ones with nothing to look forward to other than the summer break!
Huddersfield to win 5/4.
Staying in League 1 we have surprise package Rochdale. Ever since Rochdale won away at Southampton back at the start of the season I have been watching them carefully. This week they beat Southampton at home at a price of 11/4 which was most welcome, and now have a shot at the play offs. They are at home to Cup Finalists Brentford, another team with little hope of bridging the gap to the play off picture. Brentford have only won 2 away games in 10 and both of those wins came at clubs stranded in the middle of the league. Rochdale have won 3 of their last 4, drawing the other 2-2 with high flyers Brighton. Rochdale have had a great run in their first season in League 1 and hopefully they can go on and get a play off slot.
4/5 Rochdale home win.
In the Championship Leeds welcome Watford to Elland Road. Watford were play off contenders for some of the season but have slipped south in recent weeks. Leeds have been on the edge of things for most of the season and currently occupy the last slot, a position they will be keen not to give up. Leeds are high scorers at home, they drew 0-0 with Ipswich recently but also had wins of 4-1 and 5-2 and draws of 2-2 and 3-3 to go with the 0-0! Watford have won once away in 5, losing the last 2 and drawing the others 1-1. I think its a day for Leeds to push on to the play offs so its Leeds to win
4/6 Leeds.
Finally in League 2 Torquay play Port Vale. Torquay are pushing hard for a play off spot and have won their last 4 games, before that they drew with Rotherham. In that time they have only conceded 1 goal. Port Vale however have lost their last 2 away games to 0 and at home have only won once in 5. So Port Vale, another team that were looking likely promotion candidates are slowly slipping to a position of neither up nor down!
5/6 for Torquay to keep the pressure on at the top of the play off picture.
Some other interesting options for the weekend - Scunthorpe won at home to QPR last week (against my bet) at odds of 6/1. This week they go to Crystal Palace, Scunthorpe have only scored once in 10 away games losing them all! I was tempted by Scunthorpe but at 100/30 the price was a bit short for me!
In the Premiership Birmingham play Sunderland. The Black Cats were once looking for a Europa Cup place but since selling Darren Bent haven't had anything to cheer! Sunderland havent won since beating Blackppol away on 22 January! They have to break that run at some point and at 11/4 it might be tomorrow!
The yankee pays £60 and the accumulator will pay £123 or thereabouts!
check out details for next season here
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
Friday 15 April 2011
Friday 8 April 2011
So its all about the language we use!
I wonder who got the most out of the week gone by. The FA for charging Rooney for swearing down a tv camera, Rooney for swearing down a tv camera or the papers for reporting on the whole thing. My view? he shouldn't have done it, he did do it, someone will do it again and as long as they get charged as well I will be happy. I don't as I have said in the past think the football world has any respect for the paying public and this proves my point. Its not ok to do what he did, his manager and his club back Rooney and the FA did what they could but its too little and its too late.
Tomorrow sees the annual renewal of the Grand National. Last year we saw the greatest jockey AP McCoy win the race for the first time, it was interesting from a betting standpoint as his mount was backed down from 20-1 to 10-1 at the off! Some gamble and it paid off! This year he goes for an amazing double, the like of which we haven't seen since Red Rum. Again he has been backed down from 16-1 to 10-1 and is likely to go off as the single figured favourite once the housewives tuck into it tomorrow! he has a big chance and will have some of my money riding with him!
To the football for this week, rather than look at the prices I'm purely looking at who I think will win and not be put off by odds. Its a change in tactic to see whether I get unduly influenced by price. I'm also picking one game from each league.
Starting in the premiership we have Blackburn and Birmingham. 2 teams fighting at the wrong end of the table, Birmingham have the Carling Cup safely tucked away but need to get some points to retain their premiership status. I don't like what is happening at Blackburn and still feel they could go down, they lost at Birmingham early in the season but alot has changed since then. Blackburn have drawn their last 2 games, the 0-0 at Arsenal will be seen as a point gained, I expect this to be close again and I think the draw is the most sensible course of action.
Blackburn Vs Birmingham - Draw
On to the Championship where run away leaders QPR seem to just keep on winning!! Its top playing away at bottom (Scunthorpe Vs QPR) and I can only see one result. Its QPR all the way for me and soon they will be celebrating promotion. Scunthorpe have not won since the 5th March and havent even scored since the 8 March. QPR haven't lost since the 8th March and haven't let a goal in over the past 2 games.
QPR to win away for me.
In League 1 we have a number of big games at both ends of the table. At the bottom Plymouth are at home to Walsall, its a long way to survival for Plymouth now but a win against Walsall will keep the locals dreaming of a miracle. Walsall haven't won away since they beat Carlisle in February, Plymouth havn't won at home since 8th March! Its a must win for both teams so I see it being an open game. I expect both teams to score but cannot suggest what the result might be! I'll go goal crazy on this game. Good luck to Plymouth I hope they get sorted!
Goal Crazy Plymouth Vs Walsall
Finally in the League 2 we have Bradford and Torquay. Bradford have changed their manager recently and Torquay are kicking on to try and get a play off place. This game will once again produce goals and I see both teams scoring. Both teams kept a clean sheet last time out and rarely at this level do teams constantly keep clean sheets.
Goal crazy Bardford vs Torquay
the £1 Yankee pays £72!
Enjoy the weekend and the Grand National!
check out details for next season
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
Tomorrow sees the annual renewal of the Grand National. Last year we saw the greatest jockey AP McCoy win the race for the first time, it was interesting from a betting standpoint as his mount was backed down from 20-1 to 10-1 at the off! Some gamble and it paid off! This year he goes for an amazing double, the like of which we haven't seen since Red Rum. Again he has been backed down from 16-1 to 10-1 and is likely to go off as the single figured favourite once the housewives tuck into it tomorrow! he has a big chance and will have some of my money riding with him!
To the football for this week, rather than look at the prices I'm purely looking at who I think will win and not be put off by odds. Its a change in tactic to see whether I get unduly influenced by price. I'm also picking one game from each league.
Starting in the premiership we have Blackburn and Birmingham. 2 teams fighting at the wrong end of the table, Birmingham have the Carling Cup safely tucked away but need to get some points to retain their premiership status. I don't like what is happening at Blackburn and still feel they could go down, they lost at Birmingham early in the season but alot has changed since then. Blackburn have drawn their last 2 games, the 0-0 at Arsenal will be seen as a point gained, I expect this to be close again and I think the draw is the most sensible course of action.
Blackburn Vs Birmingham - Draw
On to the Championship where run away leaders QPR seem to just keep on winning!! Its top playing away at bottom (Scunthorpe Vs QPR) and I can only see one result. Its QPR all the way for me and soon they will be celebrating promotion. Scunthorpe have not won since the 5th March and havent even scored since the 8 March. QPR haven't lost since the 8th March and haven't let a goal in over the past 2 games.
QPR to win away for me.
In League 1 we have a number of big games at both ends of the table. At the bottom Plymouth are at home to Walsall, its a long way to survival for Plymouth now but a win against Walsall will keep the locals dreaming of a miracle. Walsall haven't won away since they beat Carlisle in February, Plymouth havn't won at home since 8th March! Its a must win for both teams so I see it being an open game. I expect both teams to score but cannot suggest what the result might be! I'll go goal crazy on this game. Good luck to Plymouth I hope they get sorted!
Goal Crazy Plymouth Vs Walsall
Finally in the League 2 we have Bradford and Torquay. Bradford have changed their manager recently and Torquay are kicking on to try and get a play off place. This game will once again produce goals and I see both teams scoring. Both teams kept a clean sheet last time out and rarely at this level do teams constantly keep clean sheets.
Goal crazy Bardford vs Torquay
the £1 Yankee pays £72!
Enjoy the weekend and the Grand National!
check out details for next season
http://topfootballbetting.blogspot.com/2011/06/early-20112012-league-winner-thoughts.html
Friday 1 April 2011
Time for the run in!
The start of April always brings with it the tim eof year when things get a bit more serious in the football world. Those teams trying to get out of their league, those trying to stay in their league and those trying for the Premier League title.
As I look at my bet from 1 January (18/1) on Man U , QPR, Brighton and Chesterfield I sit in the comfort that 3 of the 4 look certain to win their leagues. Man U are the ones in doubt as the premier league this year has been somewhat upside down!
For those attempting to get out of trouble, I fear for Preston and Scunthorpe in the Championship, Plymouth in League 1 (despite a bet at 9/2 for them to go down) and almost dead and buried already Barnet and Stockport.
Again the premiership is fairly wide open although Balckburn have the worst form of any team in the League and at 2/1 to go down is the stand out bet of the weekend.
Turning to the matches this weekend my selections are as follows.
Yeovil and Bristol Rovers are scrapping for survival, Yeovil have won their last 3 games 2 of those away at Exeter 2-3 and at Orient 1-5. Bristol are stuck in the bottom 4 and I think if Yeovil win on Saturday that should just about be enough for them so will go out with extra incentives.
10/11 for Yeovil to win.
Barnet look like they are dead and buried and tomorrow could see the start of the end for them. They are 5 points behind Burton and have played 3 games more. Tomorrow Burton host Barnet for the biggest 6 pointer of both teams season. I expect Burton to keep up their good home form and take this one. As a foot note I hope the appointment of Martin Allen helps both Martin and Barnet and I hope they both make a swift return to the League 2 if they do eventually go down.
At 23/20 its too big to miss.
Runaway leaders in league 2 are Chesterfield. Chesterfield recently drew 2-2 at Barnet so are due a return to winning ways. Port Vale sit on the edge of the playoff picture but I doubt they will remain there after tomorrow.
At 5/6 chesterfield are for me.
Finally Exeter host Dagenham. Anyone that has followed my blog this year will know that Exeter are one of my "go to" teams when I am looking for a win. I have had reasonable success with Exeter this season, they have won on 8 occasions at home this year and should see a Dagenham team that are another team languising towards the wrong end of the table. Dagenham could end up at the end of the season being the beneficiaries of Plymouths 10 point deduction but will need a few more points for that to happen. I dont think these will come at Exeter so I again go for Exeter to win.
5/4 is a big price for this home banker!
On a foot note, i read this week that if you had laid £100 against Tony McCoy on all of his horses that were 4/1 or shorter for the past 4 years you would now have £30,000!!!!
its an interesting stat but its 4 years late!
Good luck with your weekend fixture selection.
The £1 yankee pays £75, the £10 accumulator will net just shy of £170.
As I look at my bet from 1 January (18/1) on Man U , QPR, Brighton and Chesterfield I sit in the comfort that 3 of the 4 look certain to win their leagues. Man U are the ones in doubt as the premier league this year has been somewhat upside down!
For those attempting to get out of trouble, I fear for Preston and Scunthorpe in the Championship, Plymouth in League 1 (despite a bet at 9/2 for them to go down) and almost dead and buried already Barnet and Stockport.
Again the premiership is fairly wide open although Balckburn have the worst form of any team in the League and at 2/1 to go down is the stand out bet of the weekend.
Turning to the matches this weekend my selections are as follows.
Yeovil and Bristol Rovers are scrapping for survival, Yeovil have won their last 3 games 2 of those away at Exeter 2-3 and at Orient 1-5. Bristol are stuck in the bottom 4 and I think if Yeovil win on Saturday that should just about be enough for them so will go out with extra incentives.
10/11 for Yeovil to win.
Barnet look like they are dead and buried and tomorrow could see the start of the end for them. They are 5 points behind Burton and have played 3 games more. Tomorrow Burton host Barnet for the biggest 6 pointer of both teams season. I expect Burton to keep up their good home form and take this one. As a foot note I hope the appointment of Martin Allen helps both Martin and Barnet and I hope they both make a swift return to the League 2 if they do eventually go down.
At 23/20 its too big to miss.
Runaway leaders in league 2 are Chesterfield. Chesterfield recently drew 2-2 at Barnet so are due a return to winning ways. Port Vale sit on the edge of the playoff picture but I doubt they will remain there after tomorrow.
At 5/6 chesterfield are for me.
Finally Exeter host Dagenham. Anyone that has followed my blog this year will know that Exeter are one of my "go to" teams when I am looking for a win. I have had reasonable success with Exeter this season, they have won on 8 occasions at home this year and should see a Dagenham team that are another team languising towards the wrong end of the table. Dagenham could end up at the end of the season being the beneficiaries of Plymouths 10 point deduction but will need a few more points for that to happen. I dont think these will come at Exeter so I again go for Exeter to win.
5/4 is a big price for this home banker!
On a foot note, i read this week that if you had laid £100 against Tony McCoy on all of his horses that were 4/1 or shorter for the past 4 years you would now have £30,000!!!!
its an interesting stat but its 4 years late!
Good luck with your weekend fixture selection.
The £1 yankee pays £75, the £10 accumulator will net just shy of £170.
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